06.06.2008 in iPhone, opinion by Nilesh 1

100 million iPhones in three years?

Everyone has a precise number when predicting how many iPhones Apple will sell. But I feel that one way or another, they’re all vastly underestimating the iPhone’s sales potential for one simple reason: an iPhone is an iPod, AND a phone.

Let’s take a quick look at the iPhone sales predictions so far:

Prediction	Reason
25 million by 2009	–
Wont sell 10 million in 2008	% of the entire mobile market is too high, Apple is competing only with other smartphones, and thats a much smaller number
45 million by 2009	“Apple has caught the big fish this time”
45 million by 2009	3G model, family of iPhones
10 million in 2008	new iPhone models, plus end of the year holiday spike in sales

Think about it: From the time it launched the iPod, in 2001, Apple has sold an incredible 150 million units. Even if we assume that there are only about a 100 million of them still in use that still means a 100 million satisfied iPod users out there.

Satisfied for how long, though? If we assume that the average life of an iPod is about three years, that means in the next three years or so, a 100 million iPod users are going to look for an upgrade.

And what do you think they will pick? Another iPod? or an iPhone? Most iPod users also use some kind of a mobile phone. That’s two gadgets to carry around all the time. When it’ time to upgrade the iPod, or even the phone for that matter, wouldn’t it make sense to pick up one gadget that serves the purpose of two?

Millions of happy iPod users are still taking their time to upgrade to iPhone. When that time comes, the competitors who today claim to be selling more and more will be left redfaced.